Tiff, You're a Bad Guy
This begins with a reality check, Tiff: https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/ford-government-changes-tune-supports-ndp-bill-to-declare-an-epidemic-of-intimate-partner-violence. The Ford government FINALLY admitted the province of Ontario is suffering an epidemic of DOMESTIC ABUSE.
It’s pretty much happening all across the country. It happens, Tiff, I already told you, people lash out when they don’t have any money. To pay bills. To Cover mortgages. To afford food. Stress and frustration hurt. They really HURT.
So, realize what you said, yesterday, Tiff, and I quote: I realize that what most Canadians want to know is when we will lower our policy interest rate. What do we need to see to be convinced it’s time to cut? The short answer is we are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained. The further decline we’ve seen in core inflation is very recent. We need to be assured this is not just a temporary dip.
Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/opening-statement-2024-04-10/
Basically, YOU know people are hurting, and are quite comfortable letting them bleed. Tiff, that’s unacceptable.
Yesterday, the Globe and Mail published the opinion, again, of 2 C.D, Howe Institute economists:
First, they figure, as you were previously LATE recognizing Inflation, it’s likely you will be late, AGAIN, to recognize its demise.
And, they have a different method of determining the Inflation Target attainment to the BOC.
To quote: First, looking at year-over-year measures is increasingly misleading. Headline inflation over the last three months has dropped well below target, to 1.3 percent (where we convert the three-month change into an annualized number to make comparable to the year-over-year numbers). The bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been barely above target over the last three months: Trim inflation was 2.4 percent and Median inflation was 2.1 percent. Even food price inflation has slowed. While still above 2 percent year over year, over the last three months it was just 1.3 percent, and food prices have decreased slightly since last December.
I don’t know if you remember, Tiff, before Interest Rates had even hit 5%, I suggested there was a problem the Inflation Target and how the BOC defines inflation. And, I have been banging the drum ever since.
In July 2023, I wrote the following post: I will smite thee, Tiff Macklem. Like the C.D Howe economists, Mr. Kronick and Mr. Ambler, I recognized the problem with MORTGAGE RATES and their affect on Inflation. To quote them:
The major exception has been shelter costs, which have increased at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent over the last three months. These costs have been driven by mortgage interest costs (which depend in a very direct way on the Bank of Canada’s policy rate). When mortgage interest costs are stripped out of the CPI, the index was lower in February 2024 than in July 2023, meaning that this measure of inflation has been negative over the last seven months
And, basically means, without Mortgage Rates, there has been NO Inflation. Obviously, I don’t agree with everything Mr. Kubrick and Mr. Ambler say, but grant the two points above. And, suggest, those point are, likely, leading to questions about your credibility and veracity of population numbers. IMO.
Tiff, I suggest you’ve been trying to achieve the WRONG goals rather than MEET the needs of Canadians. Keep up with the USD? Hence, my justification of Clean Slate and acknowledgement of your predicament.
To quote the Bank of Canada, again: House prices in Canada could rise faster than expected. And wage growth could remain high relative to productivity. On the down side, economic activity globally and in Canada could be weaker than expected, cooling demand and inflation too much.
House prices inevitably rise when rates go down because mortgages are cheaper. I haven’t got a clue how to fix that, but blame Mark Carney for the Housing Affordability issue, not you.
And, it would be nice for Wage Growth to be attained because of Labour Productivity except, I think, we’re still suffering from Labour shortages and are in quite the situation. Nothing has been or is being done to incentivize population growth. And, Tiff, that affects Labour, and Wage Growth, and Inflation rhetoric leading to increased Business costs.
Who wants to come to a cold country where homes are too expensive, Education access is a problem and no non-citizens have access to free Healthcare?
If we really did get 4 MILLION people in the past 3 years, it’s odd we’re still short Trades, Teachers and Medical Doctors despite that many people.
Anyhow, Tiff, tangentially, your comments on Global Growth struck me as curious.
I read Michael Jensen’s paper on share holder value: Reflections on the Corporation as a Social Invention, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=244156 (22 pages, downloadable). I was wondering how Productivity was going to work when Mr. Trump becomes President. A high value stock market does not equal a highly productive economy.
Actually, as the Americans don’t invest in Education, things look to become Yellen threatening China weird. Overcapacity? Or, the Chinese are better salesmen? Or, smart guys, the Chinese, are just selling a better product? And, my interest is only relative to Canada.
We’re comparable to the Chinese; they did want to invest in us, as did India…
We stopped them.
So, measuring UP to the Americans doesn’t strike me as the smartest thing to be doing.
More a semblance to the Abuse Culture with which this post began. And, I am really fed up with the Americans telling us what to do, and everyone obeying.