The Truth About the Numbers

My Husband is such a good guy, no matter how crazy I sound.

The Globe and Mail has this excellent editorial this morning: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-the-data-that-add-up-to-a-failure-in-reconciliation/. To quote: Statistics Canada produces solid data, as have reports from the First Nations Information Governance Centre and information assembled by the federal government. But the work delivered by the First Nations Health Authority in B.C. highlights what more can be done, starting with timely data. It puts a finger on the problem and points a way to a better future. The work shines a light on a gap in reconciliation, ahead of the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation on Sept. 30.

With absolute respect, I support the tenor of the article: I absolutely want to improve life for the Indigenous. Unfortunately, I debate the data. The First Nations Governance Centre is unfamiliar to me, so, I don’t question its figures. And, in all honesty, their numbers sound reasonable. Interesting coincidence it was formed 15 years ago.

Anyhow, this is important to emphasize….

The National Day of Truth and Reconciliation is September 30, Orange Shirt Day: https://scoinc.mb.ca/orange-shirt-day-events-2024 . And, obviously, the editorial timely. And, that is a big deal.

The thing is….former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. I don’t like him, beware the bias of my criticism, but he did so many bad things…

So, in 2008, PM Harper apologized to the Indigenous for Residential Schools: https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1100100015644/1571589171655. Sounds great? A monumental step toward making life better for OUR Indigenous People.

Per usual, nothing actually changed. The thing of which all of us should know is the Water Situation; that crisis went on for twenty years. Throughout PM Harper’s tenure. PM Trudeau’s selling point for the 2015 election? It’s still not fixed. And, People still have had to fight to have the bodies of Indigenous Women to be removed from garbage dumps. PM Harper apologized for the Schools, but didn’t really do much else. Lip service?

I tend to think a lot of news is made to distract People.

PM Harper removed the long form census in 2010, and Mr. Munir Sheikh Chief Statisician resigned. There were lots of critics of the STATSCAN Data removal. CBC had an interesting article about the need FOR the long form census reinstatement, 2 years later, 2012: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/long-form-census-cancellation-taking-toll-on-statscan-data-1.1176466. To quote: "Data users are advised to exercise caution when evaluating trends related to mother tongue and home language that compare 2011 census data to those of previous censuses," Statistics Canada states bluntly in a box included in its census material.

Those are strong words for a statistical agency, since they raise profound questions about how the data can be used reliably to come to conclusions about language trends. Officials have undertaken a thorough investigation, with a report to be published shortly.

"There are a lot of questions and responses that don't seem to add up," said Doug Norris, the chief demographer for Environics Analytics and formerly a census manager at the agency.

The liberals, apparently, did reinstate the long form census in 2015; I did not know that. Just the Chief Statistician, Mr. Wayne Smith, subsequently resigned in 2016 citing government interference as justification.

I suggest that long form census removal by PM Harper was political interference, and whatever the PM Trudeau’s government did subsequently worsened that situation. I don’t think the numbers are reliable because that time gap in Data collection prevents a context. Historical trends can not be traced. Case in point Immigration: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221026/dq221026a-eng.htm. To quote: From 2016 to 2021, Canada's population living in private households grew by 5.4%, and new, or recent, immigrants accounted for 71.1% of that growth.

Over 1.3 million recent immigrants were permanently admitted from January 1, 2016 to May 11, 2021, accounting for 15.9% of all immigrants living in Canada in 2021.

When combined with those already established here, more than 8.3 million people, or 23.0% of the population, were or had ever been a landed immigrant or permanent resident of Canada in 2021.

We don’t know how many New Canadians were already established here because there was no base line to observe changes prior to 2016. And, I am willing to bet the liberals have had their hands on STATSCAN Data SINCE Mr. Smith’s resignation. Worsening data collection? The Covid19 Pandemic likely made the number situation even worse because crises do.

So, when the Globe editorial begins with the idea data collected by STATSCAN is solid, I automatically question the point. I can see why it is not, what makes the Editors believe it is?

And, that belief skewers interpretation.

Life for the Indigenous Crowd was IMPROVING under PM Harper who did nothing, but has worsened under PM Trudeau who said a lot but arguably did even less? I suggest nothing has changed for the Indigenous since 2010. The First Nations Health Authority just proving it.