So, Mr. Rosenberg....

Totally agree with you, Mr. Rosenberg.

I get to the same conclusion as you just in a different way. To be honest, I completely disagree with Canada’s Population numbers.

And, that gives me a different perspective.

However, first, CITI Bank in the States already said what the American Banks are doing, following the Fed, is likely to blow up in their faces: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-headed-hard-landing-021257758.html Hard Landing? A comeuppance later this year?

A likely need for 4 rate cuts really fast?

I believe Janet Yellen is trying to support the currency, the USD, and it’s not working. China’s productivity is too fast? Its partnership with Russia is too solid? Betcha it actually has to do with Education

There was a great film 2012 where Arks save People from world wide catastrophe, and the curious point to note is Canada is in an Ark with England and Germany. The United States is an Ark all on its own. The Americans like to believe in their exceptionalism and individualism, and, consequently, do not support Public Education generally. It has given rise to Charter Schools, and an insecurity about Public Schooling overall. Likely leading to an unevenness of national competitive competency.

But, England, Germany, Canada, and the rest of the world believes in Education. China strongly supports it, makes University affordable, and encourages trades. So, it’s not a giant leap to expect its Population to be smarter than the Americans. Plus, there are more Chinese anyhow. And all the likely ramifications.

But, my concern is US (Canada), Mr. Rosenberg. We are not like the Americans though I think the knuckleheads are pushing us to be.

Bloomberg had a piece on Scotiabank: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-28/rate-cuts-will-take-months-to-help-consumers-scotiabank-says also via Yahoo, and why we need Reporters/ Analysts rather than everyone living in an echo chamber. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-rate-cuts-months-help-152226600.html. Repeated in all Post Media? So, same story across the country? I even agree with it, but there’s a problem when 40 Million of us are getting the same perspective. Anyhow, to quote Yahoo: There’s some talk about rate decreases in June and July,” Scotiabank Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas said Tuesday on the lender’s fiscal second-quarter earnings call, referring to moves by the Bank of Canada. “I’m of the opinion that even with those decreases in June and July, it’ll take a few quarters — maybe one, two, three quarters — for it to start to really support the Canadian consumer.”

Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages have been hit particularly hard by rising borrowing costs over the past two years and will enjoy only moderate monthly savings at first. For clients in Vancouver and Toronto, Thomas said, a 25-basis-point rate cut will lead to an average decrease of C$100 ($73) per month on their mortgage payments.

Mr. Thomas is a bit euphemistic when he talks businesses having an easier time, but I suspect he would likely agree with you, Mr. Rosenberg. We’re in a recession and it’s going to take months to get out of it.

I would suggest years.

A hundred bucks debt payment reduction possibly in the next two months is NOT going to be enough to help people.

I do like Pamela Heaven from FP, but also REPEATED all over the place, this citation from MICROSOFT NEWS: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/posthaste-canada-at-critical-turning-point-as-poverty-worsens-warns-report/ar-BB1mQAo1?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

Last week, Ms Heaven looked at how Canadians were suffering. Older posts on my blog refer to the National EPIDEMIC of Intimate Partner/ Spousal Abuse. She states that 1 in 4 Canadians currently endure food insecurity. I mentioned that last week, too.

Anyhow, this is what I found interesting in her article: It wasn’t always so. Between 2015 and 2020, Canada saw the most dramatic decline in poverty on record, with the rate dropping from over 14 per cent to 6.4 per cent, the report said. But in 2022 poverty rates began to climb as the economy was buffeted by a series of challenges. Rising interest rates , though aimed at taming inflation , hit lower-income households the hardest, rapid population growth put pressure on social services and rents soared , increasing the share of income households needed to dedicate to housing.

Canadian Poverty has increased in parallel to BOC Interest Rate hikes.

I do think Tiff at the BOC is a knucklehead. He has lost credibility. The inflation he was trying to tame was unaffected by anything to do with Interest Rates, here. All that’s happened: (re poverty stats) … Canada (went) from a D to D-, signalling that people are struggling more in 2024 with poverty and the cost of living than they did in 2023. (which was worse than 2022)

The country also received failing grades for housing affordability , access to health care and adequacy of government supports.

The study found that across Canada 47 per cent of people had difficulty navigating the tax system and didn’t know what tax benefits they were eligible for.

Between February and April of this year, 25 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 went to a food charity because of lack of money.

Everything has gotten worse. Inflation caused by an International situation was worsened by our supposed ‘Population’ Boom.

Recession makes sense. People are suffering.

Here’s the thing, Mr. Rosenberg, assuming you are right about the STATSCAN Population figures, 2 stories come to mind.

1/ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-edmonton-cmas-july-2023-population-estimates-2024-data-release-1.7210191

Calgary and Edmonton’s Populations have increased notably via Immigration and intra Provincial Immigration. To quote: The majority of the population growth in both Calgary and Edmonton was due to the arrival of people from other countries, including both permanent immigrants and temporary international residents….Both Calgary and Edmonton also saw high levels of growth due to interprovincial migration — that is, more people moving to the Alberta cities from other provinces than people departing those cities for other provinces.

With the new oil boom being the reason.

AND

2/ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Canadas-Oil-Resurgence-is-Doomed-Without-Younger-Workers

Despite all the apparent New Canadians, the Alberta energy sector is still short workers. And, the quote that particularly intrigued me: But a shortage of talent could make Canada's renewed oil boom more difficult to sustain.  

As Boomers and Generation X are retiring, the next generations of the workforce – Millennials and Gen Z – are looking at the oil and gas industry as a dirty thing from the past, wrecking the climate and not worth their attention as job seekers.

Retirements are the main reason for the Labour shortage. Though, if you remember, Mr. Rosenberg, before the Pandemic, say 2019, Retirements were also the main reason for Labour shortages then.

The two stories contradict each other. In way.

So, what about the Population boom?

Now, I am not picking on Alberta, there’s a Doctor shortage in Ontario—a clinic just shut down in the Sault. Oil Workers, Teachers and Trades are needed all over the country. Construction Workers?

But, the Bank of Canada has used the claim of a Population surge to justify Interest Rate increases and I don’t know where those People are.

3 Million in the past 2 years? 4 Million in the past 4? Yet, we’re short Workers? I have covered the difficulty getting here, so, we’ve just got People in all the wrong Industries?

I suspect, Mr. Rosenberg, we’re in a Recession for quite different reasons than you: short people, high interest rates and affordability issues, to me, mean difficulties the BOC can’t solve.

No matter what it does with Interest Rates. I think.