About the CAD
From the Financial Post: https://financialpost.com/news/canadian-dollar-could-win-interest-rate-differentials-war.
First, The Doors version of People are Strange is better but I’ve posted it 3X times, already. Just, it’s obvious something strange is going on with our currency. I don’t completely understand, but the CAD is constantly going up, and that’s not good. We don’t merit it but I think the Americans want it that way. Can they make it?
The Canadian Dollar forecast: https://www.mtfxgroup.com/fx-forecast/. To quote: In light of these developments, the USD/CAD exchange rate is anticipated to rise above 1.40 in the coming months, as weaker global economic growth exerts downward pressure on commodity prices, further influencing the currency pair.
The FP actually says the opposite.
To quote the site and my favourite, Mr. Rosenberg: At the start of last month, the Canadian dollar was trading at 72 US cents.
“It’s probably best to think of its recent gains as a temporary trend reversal, not the beginning of a secular rally,” he said.
Well-known Bay Street economist David Rosenberg is also downbeat about the loonie’s prospects.
“Rallies are to be rented as the fundamental trend will weaken over time,” the founder and president of Rosenberg Research said in a note on Wednesday following the Bank of Canada‘s interest rate cut.
There’s no justification for the increase in the CAD’s value, yet it is increasing. I happen to think Mr. Rosenberg is right about Canada already being in a recession; Interest Rates need to drop a lot lower.
Correspondingly, lowering our CAD for trade.
We have a lot of resources to sell, however, our dollar measure contained to American dynamics also restricts the Canadian market to the States.
The CAD is too rich to diversify.
The CAD to Chinese Yuan: https://coincodex.com/forex/cad-cny/forecast/. Not understanding everything, I think our CAD could go a lot lower to enhance International trade.
The MFTX site also had this:
Recent labour market data have highlighted a growing disconnect between the Federal Reserve's messaging and market expectations, with over 100 basis points of easing now priced in for the next three FOMC meetings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's increased focus on full employment suggests the Fed may be more open to easing than previously anticipated. However, this weakness may be short-lived despite the current pressure on the US dollar. A broader economic slowdown in the US could trigger a risk-off sentiment in global markets, leading to a reversal in the dollar's decline as investors seek the greenback's safety amid uncertain economic conditions.
Expectations are the USD will go up with ‘safety’ currency as the explanation.
The USD is no longer safe as Reserve Currency; it’s not even safe to put funds in USD. A consequence of sanctions, I suspect.
Anyhow
It seems to me, the USD will have to go higher, a lot higher, to solicit Foreign Monies. No one is going to store money in the country unless the reward exceeds the risk. They keep appropriating Foreign funds. That’s stealing, so, Countries need incentives to store their monies in USD to distract from the possibility of theft. Make sense? Actual American Labour figures are irrelevant to the issue.
Which makes me think of OURS. And, I figure anything from STATSCAN is made-up. So, whatever the Bank of Canada is doing is to support American trade. Not actually stimulate our economy. Maybe?
The American situation is irrelevant to OURs.
Did we ACTUALLY take the Russian funds? There is an ambiguity to the situation that makes me think whatever we did, no one takes us seriously? I really don’t know.
It makes sense for Canada to be in BRICS; it’s a larger market and a lower CAD would expand our trade.
For the life of me, I don’t know why we worry about China spying on us when clearly the Americans, and their shrinking market, have incentive to. They don’t want us to leave their purview.